ajor agricultural regions. This could increase the risk of droughts, floods and other extreme weather events.
Historically, El Niño events have been associated with an average 3.5% decline in production in tropical regions, while temperate regions have recorded an average 2.4% increase.
JP Morgan estimates that a Super El Niño at its peak could increase global food inflation by around 0.7 percentage points. Combined with rising energy prices, its impact could reach approximately 1.3–1.5 percentage points.
Which Crops in India Could Be Affected?
In India, weak or irregular monsoon conditions could affect rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and other crops that depend on rainfall.
The impact would not be limited to farms. Lower production could reduce domestic supplies, push up wholesale prices and eventually increase retail food inflation.
JP Morgan said India’s challenge is not simply whether enough food will be available. A key concern is whether farmers can continue producing at affordable costs despite volatility in global fertilizer and energy markets.
The report also points to some potential mitigating factors, including adequate global grain inventories and relatively good rice stocks in Asia.
